:Product: 19960926RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 270 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 SEP 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE DISK REMAINS
SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.
A HIGH SPEED STREAM BEGAN TO HAVE AN EFFECT AROUND MIDDAY AND
CONTINUES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 SEP-29 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 SEP  070
PREDICTED   27 SEP-29 SEP  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        26 SEP  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 25 SEP  010/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 SEP  018/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 SEP-29 SEP  025/020-010/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 SEP-29 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/40/30
MINOR STORM           40/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05