:Product: 19960927RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Sep 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 271 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 SEP 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE DISK REMAINED
SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS ACTIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. QUIET TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED FOR THE
LATTER HALF. SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE A CORONAL HOLE STREAM
IS THE CAUSE OF THIS DISTURBANCE. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS DUE TO CORONAL HOLE STREAMS IMPACTING THE EARTH. ISOLATED
MINOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 SEP-30 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 SEP  070
PREDICTED   28 SEP-30 SEP  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        27 SEP  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 26 SEP  024/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 SEP  017/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 SEP-30 SEP  015/015-018/018-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 SEP-30 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/25
MINOR STORM           20/30/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/30
MINOR STORM           20/30/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05