:Product: 19960927RSGA.txt :Issued: 1996 Sep 27 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 271 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 SEP 1996 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE DISK REMAINED SPOTLESS. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS ACTIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. QUIET TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED FOR THE LATTER HALF. SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE A CORONAL HOLE STREAM IS THE CAUSE OF THIS DISTURBANCE. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE MODERATE TO HIGH. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS DUE TO CORONAL HOLE STREAMS IMPACTING THE EARTH. ISOLATED MINOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 SEP-30 SEP CLASS M 01/01/01 CLASS X 01/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 27 SEP 070 PREDICTED 28 SEP-30 SEP 070/070/070 90 DAY MEAN 27 SEP 071 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 SEP 024/023 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 SEP 017/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 SEP-30 SEP 015/015-018/018-015/015 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 SEP-30 SEP A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 20/20/25 MINOR STORM 20/30/15 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/05 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 20/25/30 MINOR STORM 20/30/15 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/05