:Product: 19960928RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Sep 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 272 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 SEP 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. A SMALL REGION
EMERGED NEAR S10W90 AND PRODUCED SMALL FLUCTUATIONS. NO NUMBER
WAS GIVEN TO THIS REGION SINCE NO SPOTS WERE VISIBLE FROM
GROUND-BASED OBSERVATORIES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED BETWEEN QUIET AND MINOR STORM
LEVELS. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED
BETWEEN 28/0300-0900Z. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE MOSTLY HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO VARY BETWEEN QUIET AND MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR THE
PERIOD. ANOTHER CORONAL HOLE IS MOVING INTO TERRESTRIALLY
EFFECTIVE POSITION ON THE SUN. THE MOST DISTURBED CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON 30 SEP.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 SEP-01 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 SEP  071
PREDICTED   29 SEP-01 OCT  070/070/069
90 DAY MEAN        28 SEP  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 27 SEP  018/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 SEP  018/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 SEP-01 OCT  018/020-020/025-015/018
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 SEP-01 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/40/35
MINOR STORM           15/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/40/35
MINOR STORM           25/25/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05