:Product: 19960929RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Sep 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 273 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 SEP 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE VISIBLE DISK
REMAINS SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN AT HIGH LEVELS SINCE ABOUT 29/1330Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 SEP-02 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 SEP  070
PREDICTED   30 SEP-02 OCT  070/070/068
90 DAY MEAN        29 SEP  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 28 SEP  019/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 SEP  010/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 SEP-02 OCT  015/020-010/018-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 SEP-02 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/20
MINOR STORM           20/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/25
MINOR STORM           30/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05