:Product: 19960930RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Sep 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 274 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 SEP 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE VISIBLE DISK IS
STILL SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE
REMAINED HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 OCT-03 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 SEP  070
PREDICTED   01 OCT-03 OCT  070/068/068
90 DAY MEAN        30 SEP  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 29 SEP  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 SEP  006/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 OCT-03 OCT  010/005-010/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 OCT-03 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/05
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/15
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01