:Product: 19961004RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Oct 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 278 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 OCT 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIELD
MAY BECOME UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE BY THE END OF THE THREE DAY
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A RECURRING DISTURBANCE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 OCT-07 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 OCT  069
PREDICTED   05 OCT-07 OCT  070/068/068
90 DAY MEAN        04 OCT  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 03 OCT  012/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 OCT  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 OCT-07 OCT  005/008-010/010-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 OCT-07 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/15
MINOR STORM           01/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05