:Product: 19961005RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Oct 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 279 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 OCT 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED AS
THE ENTIRE VISIBLE DISK AND LIMB REMAIN FEATURELESS AND QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTYLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 OCT-08 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 OCT  069
PREDICTED   06 OCT-08 OCT  068/068/068
90 DAY MEAN        05 OCT  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 04 OCT  006/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 OCT  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 OCT-08 OCT  010/010-020/015-020/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 OCT-08 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05