:Product: 19961006RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Oct 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 280 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 OCT 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW AS THE ENTIRE VISIBLE
DISK AND LIMB REMAIN FEATURELESS AND QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ON DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 OCT-09 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 OCT  069
PREDICTED   07 OCT-09 OCT  068/068/068
90 DAY MEAN        06 OCT  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 05 OCT  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 OCT  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 OCT-09 OCT  010/008-015/012-015/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 OCT-09 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05