:Product: 19961009RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Oct 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 283 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 OCT 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE VISIBLE DISK WAS
VIRTUALLY FEATURELESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 OCT-12 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 OCT  068
PREDICTED   10 OCT-12 OCT  068/068/068
90 DAY MEAN        09 OCT  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 08 OCT  009/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 OCT  016/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 OCT-12 OCT  010/015-010/015-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 OCT-12 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/20/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01