:Product: 19961011RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Oct 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 285 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 OCT 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE VISIBLE DISK WAS
FEATURELESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GT 2MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE WAS MODERATE WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS
APPROACHING HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 OCT-14 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 OCT  067
PREDICTED   12 OCT-14 OCT  066/068/068
90 DAY MEAN        11 OCT  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 10 OCT  010/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 OCT  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 OCT-14 OCT  010/008-015/008-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 OCT-14 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/20
MINOR STORM           10/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/01