:Product: 19961012RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Oct 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 286 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 OCT 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE VISIBLE DISK
REMAINS FEATURELESS SAVE FOR A FEW MINOR FILAMENTS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS AT 12/1545Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 OCT-15 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 OCT  067
PREDICTED   13 OCT-15 OCT  068/068/068
90 DAY MEAN        12 OCT  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 11 OCT  007/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 OCT  013/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 OCT-15 OCT  015/010-010/010-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 OCT-15 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/15
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01