:Product: 19961013RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 287 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 OCT 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE DISK IS SPOTLESS
AND NEARLY FEATURELESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED. NIGHTTIME SUBSTORMS MAY
CAUSE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 OCT-16 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 OCT  068
PREDICTED   14 OCT-16 OCT  068/068/068
90 DAY MEAN        13 OCT  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 12 OCT  016/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 OCT  018/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 OCT-16 OCT  015/012-010/010-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 OCT-16 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05