:Product: 19961014RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Oct 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 288 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 OCT 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE DISK HAS BEEN
SPOTLESS SINCE SEPTEMBER 12.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGH OCTOBER 16. EFFECTS OF A
HIGH SPEED STREAM ARE DUE THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD, WHEN
GENERALLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 OCT-17 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 OCT  069
PREDICTED   15 OCT-17 OCT  069/069/069
90 DAY MEAN        14 OCT  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 13 OCT  016/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 OCT  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 OCT-17 OCT  010/010-010/015-020/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 OCT-17 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/20
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/35
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/20