:Product: 19961015RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Oct 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 289 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 OCT 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE DISK REMAINS
SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MILDLY UNSETTLED. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS ARE
DUE OCTOBER 17.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 OCT-18 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 OCT  069
PREDICTED   16 OCT-18 OCT  069/069/069
90 DAY MEAN        15 OCT  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 14 OCT  012/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 OCT  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 OCT-18 OCT  010/012-020/020-020/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 OCT-18 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/30/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/20/20
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/35/35
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/20/20