:Product: 19961016RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 290 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 OCT 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE DISK REMAINS
SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS ARE
STILL EXPECTED ON OCTOBER 17.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 OCT-19 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 OCT  069
PREDICTED   17 OCT-19 OCT  069/069/070
90 DAY MEAN        16 OCT  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 15 OCT  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 OCT  008/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 OCT-19 OCT  020/020-020/020-020/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 OCT-19 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           30/30/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    20/20/20
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           35/35/35
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    20/20/20