:Product: 19961017RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Oct 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 291 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 OCT 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  THE SOLAR DISK REMAINED SPOTLESS AND SOLAR
ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. THE MAUNA LOA OBSERVATORY REPORTED
A CORONAL MASS EJECTION NEAR SE30 ON 16 OCT BETWEEN 1711-1929Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET. THE RECURRENT
CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BEGIN ON 17 OCT
HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE RECURRENT STREAM WILL ARRIVE LATE BUT THIS POSSIBILITY
DIMINISHES AS TIME PASSES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 OCT-20 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 OCT  069
PREDICTED   18 OCT-20 OCT  069/069/069
90 DAY MEAN        17 OCT  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 16 OCT  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 OCT  004/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 OCT-20 OCT  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 OCT-20 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05