:Product: 19961018RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Oct 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 292 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 OCT 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  THE SUN REMAINED SPOTLESS AND ACTIVITY CONTINUED
VERY LOW.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM. SOME
HIGH LATITUDE SITES EXPERIENCED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES INCREASED AND
DENSITIES DECREASED INDICATING THE BELATED ARRIVAL OF THE
CORONAL HOLE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED ON 17 OCT. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUXES WERE MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS THROUGH 20 OCT.
QUIET TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 21 OCT AS THE
CURRENT CORONAL HOLE DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. ENERGETIC
ELECTION FLUXES SHOULD RETURN TO HIGH LEVELS ON 19 OCT.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 OCT-21 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 OCT  070
PREDICTED   19 OCT-21 OCT  070/071/071
90 DAY MEAN        18 OCT  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 17 OCT  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 OCT  023/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 OCT-21 OCT  020/020-020/020-012/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 OCT-21 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           35/35/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/25
MINOR STORM           40/40/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05