:Product: 19961019RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Oct 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 293 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 OCT 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. HOWEVER, A LARGE
FILAMENT LOCATED BETWEEN S28E61-S33E80 BEGAN TO DISAPPEAR NEAR
19/1600Z. THIS FILAMENT BECAME AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE AS IT
CONTINUED OUT BEYOND THE LIMB NEAR S28 TO A MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF
0.4R BEFORE FADING IN H-ALPHA. A LONG DURATION SOFT X-RAY
ENHANCEMENT BEGAN NEAR 19/1625Z AND REACHED A MAXIMUM OF A6
AT 19/1738Z. THE DECAY OF THIS X-RAY EVENT CONTINUES AT ISSUE
TIME. IT IS CERTAIN THIS EVENT REPRESENTS A LARGE CORONAL MASS
EJECTION. A NEW SMALL REGION IS APPEARING AT APPROXIMATELY
N15E90 IN RECENT YOHKOH IMAGES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE AT A VERY LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED BETWEEN UNSETTLED AND MINOR
STORM LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD AS THE CORONAL HOLE RELATED
DISTURBANCE CONTINUED. SOME HIGH LATITUDE SITES EXPERIENCED
PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD REMAIN AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR 20 OCT
AND EARLY 21 OCT. UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF 21 OCT AND
THROUGH 22 OCT. THE PROBABLE CME MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EARTH DUE TO ITS MODERATELY HIGH
LATITUDE, NEAR EAST LIMB LOCATION, AND APPARENT TRAJECTORY
OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC PLANE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 OCT-22 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 OCT  071
PREDICTED   20 OCT-22 OCT  071/071/071
90 DAY MEAN        19 OCT  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 18 OCT  025/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 OCT  023/028
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 OCT-22 OCT  020/025-012/015-012/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 OCT-22 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/20
MINOR STORM           35/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/20
MINOR STORM           40/25/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05