:Product: 19961020RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Oct 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 294 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 OCT 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. SMALL NEW REGION
7990 EMERGED AT N15E27. THE EMERGENCE OF THIS REGION ENDS A 36
DAY PERIOD OF A SPOTLESS SUN. THE LAST SPOTLESS PERIOD OF THIS
LENGTH WAS OBSERVED IN 1944.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
AT VERY LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AND PREDOMINANTLY QUIET FOR
THE LATTER HALF. RECENT SOLAR WIND DATA SHOW DECREASING
VELOCITY HERALDING THE DEMISE OF THE CURRENT CORONAL HOLE
RELATED DISTURBANCE. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE PREDOMIANTLY HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
21 OCT. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW AND
CONTINUE UNTIL 23 OCT WHEN ANOTHER CORONAL HOLE DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN. UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE
FORCAST FOR THAT DATE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 OCT-23 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 OCT  071
PREDICTED   21 OCT-23 OCT  071/071/071
90 DAY MEAN        20 OCT  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 19 OCT  033/031
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 OCT  015/016
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 OCT-23 OCT  012/012-010/010-018/022
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 OCT-23 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/10