:Product: 19961022RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Oct 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 296 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 OCT 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MINOR STORM. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS HIGH TO VERY HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE, WITH OCCASIONAL MINOR
STORM PERIODS, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 OCT-25 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 OCT  070
PREDICTED   23 OCT-25 OCT  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        22 OCT  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 21 OCT  008/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 OCT  018/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 OCT-25 OCT  020/020-020/018-020/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 OCT-25 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           20/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           20/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/10