:Product: 19961023RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Oct 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 297 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 OCT 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE ARE NO SPOTTED
REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE DISK. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO SEVERE STORM. THE
MOST DISTURBED PERIOD OCCURRED FROM 23/00-03Z. SOLAR WIND
INFORMATION FROM THE NASA WIND SPACECRAFT SUGGESTS THAT WE
ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RECURRENT HIGH SPEED STREAM
RELATED TO AN EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE
STORM CONDITIONS DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 OCT-26 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 OCT  068
PREDICTED   24 OCT-26 OCT  068/068/068
90 DAY MEAN        23 OCT  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 22 OCT  025/028
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 OCT  030/041
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 OCT-26 OCT  020/030-020/015-015/030
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 OCT-26 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/35
MINOR STORM           20/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           20/20/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/10