:Product: 19961024RSGA.txt :Issued: 1996 Oct 24 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 298 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 OCT 1996 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE ARE NO SPOTTED REGIONS. THERE WERE NO FLARES. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGH SPEED STREAM HAS ABATED SOMEWHAT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT DAY. ANOTHER EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE MAY PRODUCE ACTIVE CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 OCT-27 OCT CLASS M 01/01/01 CLASS X 01/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 24 OCT 070 PREDICTED 25 OCT-27 OCT 070/070/068 90 DAY MEAN 24 OCT 071 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 OCT 031/035 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 OCT 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 OCT-27 OCT 010/010-015/025-015/015 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 OCT-27 OCT A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 30/35/35 MINOR STORM 20/20/20 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 10/05/05 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 30/30/30 MINOR STORM 20/25/25 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 10/10/10