:Product: 19961024RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Oct 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 298 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 OCT 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE ARE NO SPOTTED
REGIONS. THERE WERE NO FLARES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND DATA
SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGH SPEED STREAM HAS ABATED SOMEWHAT. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT DAY. ANOTHER
EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE MAY PRODUCE ACTIVE CONDITIONS BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 OCT-27 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 OCT  070
PREDICTED   25 OCT-27 OCT  070/070/068
90 DAY MEAN        24 OCT  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 23 OCT  031/035
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 OCT  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 OCT-27 OCT  010/010-015/025-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 OCT-27 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/35/35
MINOR STORM           20/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           20/25/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/10