:Product: 19961025RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Oct 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 299 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 25 OCT 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  NO FLARES OCCURRED.
NEW REGION 7991, A THREE SPOT 'BXO' NEW CYCLE (POSITIVE LEADER /
NEGATIVE TRAILER) GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS RECORDED AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE INTERVAL
25/0600-0900Z.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS
MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING ON
DAYS ONE AND TWO, DUE TO A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 OCT-28 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 OCT  070
PREDICTED   26 OCT-28 OCT  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        25 OCT  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 24 OCT  010/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 OCT  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 OCT-28 OCT  020/025-015/015-015/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 26 OCT-28 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/35/25
MINOR STORM           25/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/35/25
MINOR STORM           25/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05