:Product: 19961027RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Oct 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 301 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 OCT 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
REGION 7991 (N30W18) IS CURRENTLY A SPOTLESS PLAGE, WHILE
YESTERDAY'S NEW REGION 7992 (S15W41) HAS DECAYED SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM A THREE SPOT 'CRO' BETA GROUP TO A SINGLE 'AXX' SPOT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS FOR
PAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A SINGLE UNSETTLED
PERIOD RECORDED AT FREDERICKSBURG DURING THE INTERVAL
27/0900-1200Z.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 OCT-30 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 OCT  072
PREDICTED   28 OCT-30 OCT  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        27 OCT  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 26 OCT  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 OCT  007/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 OCT-30 OCT  010/008-010/008-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 OCT-30 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01