:Product: 19961104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Nov 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 309 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 NOV 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE ARE NO SPOTS
ON THE VISIBLE DISK, NOR ANY ACTIVITY OBSERVED ON THE LIMBS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX BEGAN THE PERIOD AT HIGH LEVELS BUT THEN DROPPED RADIPLY
REACHING NORMAL BACKGROUND LEVELS AT APPROXIMATELY 0500 UT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT UNSETTLED LEVELS TOMORROW, BECOMING
MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 NOV-07 NOV
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 NOV  069
PREDICTED   05 NOV-07 NOV  068/068/068
90 DAY MEAN        04 NOV  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 03 NOV  002/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 NOV  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 NOV-07 NOV  010/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 NOV-07 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/05
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/05
MINOR STORM           25/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01