:Product: 19961109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Nov 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 314 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 NOV 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. A SMALL SPOT
BECAME VISIBLE NEAR S01E66 AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 7993.
THIS AREA PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL B-CLASS ENHANCEMENTS. IN
RECENT SOHO EUV IMAGES, A CORONAL HOLE APPEARS TO BE FORMING
IN THE CENTER OF THE DISK SLIGHTLY WEST OF CENTRAL MERIDIAN.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL C-CLASS FLARE FROM NEW REGION 7993.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
BRIEF ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT MID AND HIGH
LATITUDES NEAR 09/1200Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 NOV-12 NOV
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 NOV  070
PREDICTED   10 NOV-12 NOV  070/070/071
90 DAY MEAN        09 NOV  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 08 NOV  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 NOV  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 NOV-12 NOV  010/008-008/010-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 NOV-12 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05