:Product: 19961110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Nov 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 315 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 NOV 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A B8 X-RAY FLARE
OCCURRED AT 09/2323Z. THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
TYPE II RADIO SWEEP AND MINOR DISCRETE FREQUENCY OUTPUT. NO
OPTICAL REPORTS WERE RECEIVED BUT THE SOURCE OF THIS SMALL
EVENT IS BELIEVED TO BE REGION 7993 (S02E51). NEW REGION
7994 (S12E33) EMERGED ON THE DISK AND IS GROWING SLOWLY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A C-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 NOV-13 NOV
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 NOV  071
PREDICTED   11 NOV-13 NOV  072/072/072
90 DAY MEAN        10 NOV  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 09 NOV  012/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 NOV  006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 NOV-13 NOV  005/010-005/012-005/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 NOV-13 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/05
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01