:Product: 19961111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Nov 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 316 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 NOV 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE LARGEST FLARE OF
THE PAST DAY WAS A B3 (NO OPTICAL REPORT RECEIVED) AT 11/0107Z.
THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP. THERE ARE
TWO SMALL NUMBERED REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE DISK: 7993 (S02E38)
AND 7994 (S11E19).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW. A SMALL CHANCE OF A C-CLASS FLARE STILL REMAINS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT DAY. UNSETTLED TO
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO A RECURRENT DISTURBANCE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 NOV-14 NOV
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 NOV  072
PREDICTED   12 NOV-14 NOV  072/072/070
90 DAY MEAN        11 NOV  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 10 NOV  007/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 NOV  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 NOV-14 NOV  005/012-005/015-015/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 NOV-14 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05