:Product: 19961113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Nov 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 318 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 NOV 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  NO FLARES OCCURRED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD
OCCURRED FROM 13/1915-2015Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED BECOMING UNSETTLED TO
ACTIVE DUE TO A RECURRENT DISTURBANCE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 NOV-16 NOV
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 NOV  073
PREDICTED   14 NOV-16 NOV  074/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        13 NOV  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 12 NOV  009/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 NOV  007/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 NOV-16 NOV  010/010-015/025-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 NOV-16 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05