:Product: 19961114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Nov 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 319 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 NOV 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
NEW REGION 7996 (N31E35), A THREE SPOT 'BSO' GROUP, WAS NUMBERED
TODAY. REGION 7995 (N00E34), A THREE SPOT 'AXX' GROUP, REMAINS
STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 NOV-17 NOV
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 NOV  074
PREDICTED   15 NOV-17 NOV  074/074/072
90 DAY MEAN        14 NOV  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 13 NOV  012/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 NOV  015/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 NOV-17 NOV  015/020-015/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 NOV-17 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01