:Product: 19961115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Nov 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 320 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 NOV 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
REGION 7996 (N32E20), A FOUR SPOT 'BXO' GROUP, HAS GROWN
IN SIZE AND COMPLEXITY. REGION 7995 (N00E19), A TWO SPOT
'AXX' GROUP, HAD SEVERAL SMALL BRIGHTNINGS EARLIER.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 NOV-18 NOV
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 NOV  074
PREDICTED   16 NOV-18 NOV  074/073/072
90 DAY MEAN        15 NOV  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 14 NOV  014/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 NOV  018/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 NOV-18 NOV  010/015-010/010-010/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 NOV-18 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01