:Product: 19961116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Nov 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 321 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 NOV 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, 7997 (N08E50), A THREE
SPOT 'BXO' BETA GROUP, AND 7998 (S14E46), A TWO SPOT 'AXX'
ALPHA GROUP.  WITH THESE TWO NEW REGIONS, THERE ARE CURRENTLY
FOUR ACTIVE REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK.  YESTERDAY'S
CARRYOVER REGIONS, 7995 (S00E05) AND 7996 (N31E05), ARE BOTH
STABLE AS TWO SPOT 'AXX' ALPHA GROUPS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS RECORDED AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE INTERVAL
16/0600-0900Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
ACTIVITY INCREASING TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE ON DAYS TWO AND
THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 NOV-19 NOV
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 NOV  074
PREDICTED   17 NOV-19 NOV  074/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        16 NOV  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 15 NOV  013/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 NOV  006/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 NOV-19 NOV  010/010-015/020-020/025
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 NOV-19 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/40/40
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/40/40
MINOR STORM           10/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05