:Product: 19961117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Nov 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 322 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 NOV 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
THE THREE ACTIVE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK, 7995
(S00E05), 7997 (N08E50), AND 7998 (S14E46), REMAIN STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS HAVE
BEEN IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
MOSTLY ACTIVE ON DAY TWO, AND FALLING OFF TO QUIET TO
UNSETTLED ON DAY THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 NOV-20 NOV
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 NOV  072
PREDICTED   18 NOV-20 NOV  074/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        17 NOV  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 16 NOV  005/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 NOV  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 NOV-20 NOV  015/020-020/025-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 NOV-20 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/50/25
MINOR STORM           20/25/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/50/25
MINOR STORM           20/25/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/05