:Product: 19961117RSGA.txt :Issued: 1996 Nov 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 322 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 NOV 1996 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. THE THREE ACTIVE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK, 7995 (S00E05), 7997 (N08E50), AND 7998 (S14E46), REMAIN STABLE. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS HAVE BEEN IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MOSTLY ACTIVE ON DAY TWO, AND FALLING OFF TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON DAY THREE. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 NOV-20 NOV CLASS M 01/01/01 CLASS X 01/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 17 NOV 072 PREDICTED 18 NOV-20 NOV 074/074/074 90 DAY MEAN 17 NOV 070 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 NOV 005/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 NOV 012/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 NOV-20 NOV 015/020-020/025-010/010 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 NOV-20 NOV A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 40/50/25 MINOR STORM 20/25/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/10/05 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 40/50/25 MINOR STORM 20/25/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/10/05