:Product: 19961118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Nov 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 323 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 NOV 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE VISIBLE DISK
REMAINS STABLE AND QUIET EXCEPT FOR A MINOR FILIMENT THAT
DISAPPEARED IN REGION 7998.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC
ELECTRONS REACHED HIGH LEVELS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN
FALLING OFF TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 NOV-21 NOV
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 NOV  074
PREDICTED   19 NOV-21 NOV  074/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        18 NOV  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 17 NOV  012/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 NOV  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 NOV-21 NOV  020/025-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 NOV-21 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/20/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/20/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05