:Product: 19961123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Nov 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 328 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 NOV 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 7999 (S04E33)
CONTINUED TO GROW IN WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA, WHILE PRODUCING
THE ONLY OBSERVED C-CLASS EVENT, A C1/0F AT 0636Z. A SECOND
UNSEEN C1 EVENT OCCURRED AT 1546Z. 7999'S EVOLUTION, COUPLED
WITH GROWTH IN THE OTHER SPOTTED REGION, 7997 (N05W40), DROVE
THE 10.7 CM FLUX TO ITS HIGHEST VALUE SINCE OCTOBER 12, 1995.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. ADDITIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM REGION
7999.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A RECURRENT
HIGH SPEED STREAM IS EXPECTED TO FUEL THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 NOV-26 NOV
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 NOV  091
PREDICTED   24 NOV-26 NOV  095/095/090
90 DAY MEAN        23 NOV  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 22 NOV  004/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 NOV  004/003
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 NOV-26 NOV  010/008-015/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 NOV-26 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/35/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/50/20
MINOR STORM           05/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/10/05