:Product: 19961124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Nov 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 329 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 NOV 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 7999 (S04E19)
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SMALL C-CLASS FLARES, BUT AT A HIGHER
CADENCE THAN YESTERDAY. THE REGION DOUBLED IN SPOT AREA TO
33O MILLIONTHS, AND SHOWS FREQUENT PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS. THE
OTHER SPOTTED REGION, 7997 (N05W54), WAS QUIET AND STABLE. SOHO
FE XII IMAGERY INDICATE A POSSIBLE CME FROM A SITE JUST SOUTH
OF REGION 7997 AT APPROXIMATELY 1200Z. THE ARCADE SPANNED
THE EQUATOR, CONNECTING TO NEAR S15. THE 10.7 CM FLUX REACHED
THE HIGHEST DAILY VALUE SINCE MARCH 3, 1994.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. REGION 7999 SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE C-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO GEOPHYSICAL
RESPONSE TO TODAY'S CME IS PREDICTED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 NOV-27 NOV
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 NOV  100
PREDICTED   25 NOV-27 NOV  105/100/095
90 DAY MEAN        24 NOV  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 23 NOV  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 NOV  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 NOV-27 NOV  015/008-010/010-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 NOV-27 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/20/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/35/20
MINOR STORM           20/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05