:Product: 19961125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Nov 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 330 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 25 NOV 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 7999 (S04E06)
CONTINUED ITS GROWTH PHASE AND NOW MEASURES 880 MILLIONTHS IN
WHITE LIGHT. THE REGION IS PRIMARILY BIPOLAR IN STRUCTURE WITH A
SLIGHT MIXTURE OF POLARITIES IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL SPOTS. IT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY, THE LARGEST BEING A
C8/1F AT 0019Z. A NEW BIPOLE EMERGED NEAR S12W56 BUT IS AS YET
UNNUMBERED. REGION 7997 (N05W69) WAS STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 7999 SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE X-RAY
FLARES, WITH M-CLASS EASILY ATTAINABLE IF IT REMAINS DYNAMIC.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS ACTIVE EARLY IN THE INTERVAL,
BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 NOV-28 NOV
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 NOV  104
PREDICTED   26 NOV-28 NOV  105/105/100
90 DAY MEAN        25 NOV  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 24 NOV  009/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 NOV  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 NOV-28 NOV  010/008-010/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 26 NOV-28 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05