:Product: 19961126RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Nov 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 331 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 NOV 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 7999 (S04W07)
PRODUCED A C1/SF FLARE AT 26/1339Z. THIS REGION STABILIZED
DURING THE PERIOD AND MAY BE EXHIBITING SLIGHT DECAY. SOME
ISOLATED MIXED POLARITIES WERE OBSERVED BUT THE REGION IS
PREDOMINANTLY BI-POLAR. ONLY POLAR CORONAL HOLES WERE
VISIBLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY LOW. REGION 7999 RETAINS THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. HOWEVER, IF THE CURRENT
DECAY TREND IN REGION 7999 CONTINUES, BOTH C-CLASS AND M-CLASS
FLARES WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED.
SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE A BENIGN STREAM IN THE EARTH'S
VICINITY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 NOV-29 NOV
CLASS M    40/30/20
CLASS X    05/05/01
PROTON     05/05/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 NOV  104
PREDICTED   27 NOV-29 NOV  102/098/096
90 DAY MEAN        26 NOV  072
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 25 NOV  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 NOV  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 NOV-29 NOV  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 NOV-29 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05