:Product: 19961127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Nov 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 332 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 NOV 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A VERY LONG DURATION
B9 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN 26/2048-27/0456Z. OPTICAL
OBSERVATORIES OBSERVED BRIGHT KNOTS OF MATERIAL FLOWING ABOVE
THE WEST LIMB NEAR N05 WHERE REGION 7997 IS LOCATED. SPACE-BASED
CORONAGRAPH IMAGES NEAR THE PEAK OF THE EVENT SHOWED A LARGE
(GREATER THAN 1 SOLAR DIAMETER) CORONAL MASS EJECTION OVER THE
WEST LIMB. YOHKOH X-RAY IMAGES IN THE DECAY OF THE EVENT SHOWED
A LARGE, POST-CME ARCADE IN THAT LOCATION. REGION 7999 (S05W21)
WAS STABLE AND WEAK MIXED POLARITIES REMAINED IN THE CENTER OF
THE REGION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
BE LOW. REGION 7999 RETAINS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING
C-CLASS AND ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE
CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED IN THE 27/0300-0600Z PERIOD.
SOLAR WIND DATA SHOW A MODERATELY HIGH VELOCITY (500-575
KM/S) STREAM IN THE EARTH'S VICINITY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EARTH.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 NOV-30 NOV
CLASS M    30/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 NOV  103
PREDICTED   28 NOV-30 NOV  100/098/096
90 DAY MEAN        27 NOV  072
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 26 NOV  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 NOV  008/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 NOV-30 NOV  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 NOV-30 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05