:Product: 19961128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Nov 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 333 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 NOV 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 7999 (S05W34)
PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 28/1243Z. THIS REGION DECAYED SLIGHTLY IN
BOTH SUNSPOT AREA AND NUMBER. ANOTHER LONG DURATION X-RAY
ENHANCEMENT OCCURRED BETWEEN 28/1535-1902Z. A C1 MAXIMUM WAS
REACHED. CORONAGRAPH DATA AFTER THE EVENT SHOWED A MASSIVE
CORONAL MASS EJECTION OFF THE WEST LIMB. THE LONGITUDES
BEHIND THE WEST LIMB MUST BE UNDERGOING SIGNIFICANT
EVOLUTION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE
LOW. REGION 7999 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL C-CLASS
AND ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD, SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES WERE BELOW 450 KM/S.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. THE CME MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
ANY DISTURBANCE. EVEN IF THE FLANK OF THE CME STRUCK THE
EARTH, THE EFFECTS WOULD BE MINIMAL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 NOV-01 DEC
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 NOV  098
PREDICTED   29 NOV-01 DEC  096/094/092
90 DAY MEAN        28 NOV  072
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 27 NOV  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 NOV  007/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 NOV-01 DEC  005/005-005/005-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 NOV-01 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05