:Product: 19961129RSGA.txt :Issued: 1996 Nov 29 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 334 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 NOV 1996 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 7999 (S04W47) PRODUCED AN M1/1F FLARE AT 29/2044Z. MINOR CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THE EVENT. DURING THE PERIOD, REGION 7999 EXHIBITED SLOW SUNSPOT DECAY AND SLIGHT PROPER MOTION OF A SOUTHERN TRAILER SPOT. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW WITH AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION 7999. IT IS NOT LIKELY THE M-CLASS FLARE MENTIONED ABOVE IS THE BEGINNING OF AN INCREASE IN FLARE ACTIVITY FROM REGION 7999 BECAUSE OF GENERAL DECAY IN THE REGION. THE M1 FLARE IS MORE LIKELY A RESULT OF SUNSPOT PROPER MOTION AND REALIGNMENT OF THE OVERLYING FIELDS. THE PROPER MOTION OCCURRED AT THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE REGION SO THIS PHENOMENON IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES DROPPED BELOW 400 KM/S DURING THE PERIOD. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 NOV-02 DEC CLASS M 30/30/20 CLASS X 05/05/05 PROTON 05/05/05 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 29 NOV 091 PREDICTED 30 NOV-02 DEC 090/088/085 90 DAY MEAN 29 NOV 072 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 NOV 006/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 NOV 004/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 NOV-02 DEC 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 NOV-02 DEC A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 10/10/10 MINOR STORM 05/05/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 10/10/10 MINOR STORM 05/05/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01