:Product: 19961202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Dec 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 337 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 DEC 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 7999 (S05W90)
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST
LIMB. OTHER REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY AS 7999 CROSSES THE LIMB. VERY LOW
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVE CONDITIONS
WERE OBSERVED AT MANY LOCATIONS FROM 02/1500-1800Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 DEC-05 DEC
CLASS M    10/05/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 DEC  078
PREDICTED   03 DEC-05 DEC  072/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        02 DEC  073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 01 DEC  002/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 DEC  010/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 DEC-05 DEC  010/005-010/005-010/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 DEC-05 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01