:Product: 19961207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Dec 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 342 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 DEC 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. NEW
REGION 8003 (S31E23), A TWO SPOT 'BXO' BETA GROUP, WAS NUMBERED
TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A SINGLE INTERVAL OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE PERIOD 07/0600-0900Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING
TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED ON DAYS TWO AND THREE, WITH THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 DEC-10 DEC
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 DEC 069
PREDICTED   08 DEC-10 DEC  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        07 DEC 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 DEC  002/001
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 DEC  004/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 DEC-10 DEC  005/005-010/012-015/017
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 DEC-10 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/30
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/30
MINOR STORM           05/10/10MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05