:Product: 19961208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Dec 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 343 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 DEC 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WERE NO FLARES
NOTED ON THE VISIBLE DISK. REGION 8003 (S30E10) IS THE ONLY
SPOTTED REGION VISIBLE AND APPEARS QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VERY LOW. REGION 8003 HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL
C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET FOR THE PAST QUIET TO UNSETTLED
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 DEC-11 DEC
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 DEC  069
PREDICTED   09 DEC-11 DEC  070/070/072
90 DAY MEAN        08 DEC  073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 07 DEC  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 DEC  003/003
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 DEC-11 DEC  010/010-015/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 DEC-11 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/30/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/35/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01