:Product: 19961210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Dec 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 345 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 DEC 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8003 (S29W18) HAD
SEVERAL FLARES AND IS THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION VISIBLE. ITS SPOT
GROUP IS A CRO BETA AND CONTINUES TO GROW SLOWLY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW. REGION 8003 HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL C-CLASS
ACTIVITY
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 DEC-13 DEC
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 DEC 072
PREDICTED   11 DEC-13 DEC  076/075/072
90 DAY MEAN        10 DEC 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 DEC  010/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 DEC  019/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 DEC-13 DEC  015/015-010/010-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 DEC-13 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/10
MINOR STORM           25/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01