:Product: 19961211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Dec 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 346 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 DEC 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WAS AN UNCORRELATED
C1 X-RAY BURST AT 11/1821Z. REGION 8003 (S29W31) CONTINUES TO GROW
SLOWLY AND IS NOW A CAO SPOT GROUP, BUT RELATIVELY QUIET. NEW REGION
8004 (N05E70), AN HSX SPOT, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTEDITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC  FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVITY WAS MOST LIKELY
THE RESULT OF A WELL PLACED CORONAL HOLE THAT IS MOVING AWAY FROM
ITS GEOEFFECTIVE POSITION. PRELIMINARY SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE WE
ARE NOW MOVING OUT OF THE LOW-DENSITY, HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE
STREAM.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
ACTIVE LEVELS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 DEC-14 DEC
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 DEC 078
PREDICTED   12 DEC-14 DEC  080/082/082
90 DAY MEAN        11 DEC 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 DEC  021/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 DEC  013/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 DEC-14 DEC  010/010-005/008-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 DEC-14 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01