:Product: 19961214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Dec 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 349 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 DEC 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. BOTH SPOTTED REGIONS,
8003 (S29W74) AND 8004 (N06E33), WERE STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAD PERIODS OF HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY QUIET
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE INTERVAL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 DEC-17 DEC
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 DEC  083
PREDICTED   15 DEC-17 DEC  084/082/082
90 DAY MEAN        14 DEC  073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 13 DEC  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 DEC  003/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 DEC-17 DEC  010/010-005/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 DEC-17 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01