:Product: 19961216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Dec 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 351 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 DEC 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. AN UNCORRELATED C2 X-RAY
BURST OCCURRED AT 16/1229Z. NEW REGION 8005 (S13E27) WAS
NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS WERE
OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE NIGHTTIME SECTORS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 DEC-19 DEC
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 DEC  086
PREDICTED   17 DEC-19 DEC  087/088/089
90 DAY MEAN        16 DEC  074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 15 DEC  010/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 DEC  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 DEC-19 DEC  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 DEC-19 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01