:Product: 19961219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Dec 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 354 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 DEC 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW THE PAST 24 HOURS. TWO LONG
DURATION X-RAY ENHANCEMENTS (B-CLASS) OCCURRED WITH ONE AT
19/0823-1044Z AND THE OTHER AT 19/1427-1507Z. ANOTHER LONG DURATION
X-RAY ENHANCEMENT(C-CLASS) OCCURRED AT 19/1521-1618Z  WHICH WAS
OPTICALLY CORRELATED WITH SPOTLESS REGION 8005 (S13W15). A SIX
DEGREE FILAMENT(N02W34)  DISAPPEARED AT 19/1633-1713Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET THE LAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH QUIET TO
UNSETTLED LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES THE SECOND DAY OF THE FORECAST.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 DEC-22 DEC
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 DEC 087
PREDICTED   20 DEC-22 DEC  090/094/094
90 DAY MEAN        19 DEC 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 DEC  006/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 DEC  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 DEC-22 DEC  005/005-005/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 DEC-22 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01