:Product: 19961221RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Dec 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 356 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 DEC 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8004 (N05W59)
CONTINUES A SLOW DECAY. NEW REGION 8007 (N04W45) EMERGED ON THE
DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
WAS NORMAL TO MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 DEC-24 DEC
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 DEC 084
PREDICTED   22 DEC-24 DEC  082/080/076
90 DAY MEAN        21 DEC 075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 DEC  002/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 DEC  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 DEC-24 DEC  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 DEC-24 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/05
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01